SPC AC 120822

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday
   across parts of the Florida Peninsula.

   ...Florida...
   Large-scale upper troughing will dominate the CONUS on Sunday. A
   low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within southwesterly
   mid-level flow should advance northeastward over the Gulf Coast
   states through the period. At the surface, a front near southern GA
   and north FL is forecast to move little through the day. Substantial
   low-level moisture is expected to remain confined along/south of
   this front on Sunday.

   The glancing influence of large-scale ascent associated with the
   low-amplitude shortwave trough may encourage convective development
   by Sunday afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula. Forecast
   soundings across this region suggest deep-layer shear will remain
   strong enough to support organized updrafts. Diurnal heating of the
   moist low-level airmass present along/south of the surface boundary
   should foster weak to locally moderate instability by late
   afternoon. The forecast combination of instability and shear appears
   sufficient for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, with
   strong/gusty winds likely the main threat. This marginal severe risk
   should diminish Sunday evening, as instability gradually weakens
   with the loss of daytime heating.

   ..Gleason.. 02/12/2021

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