SPC AC 130829

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the
   Southeast on Monday.

   ...Southeast...
   A highly amplified longwave upper trough should move eastward from
   the Plains to the eastern states on Monday. An embedded mid-level
   shortwave trough is forecast to advance northeastward from the
   southern Plains across the lower MS Valley and Southeast, eventually
   reaching the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. At the surface,
   a low over the western Gulf of Mexico should develop northeastward
   through the day. A warm front is forecast to advance northward along
   the central Gulf Coast and into at least southern GA by Monday
   night.

   There is considerable uncertainty regarding how far north rich
   low-level moisture will advance across the FL Panhandle and GA
   Monday night ahead of the shortwave trough and deepening surface
   low. The 00Z GFS and ECMWF show low to mid 60s surface dewpoints
   moving farther north into GA compared to the NAM. At least weak
   destabilization appears probable across the developing warm sector
   late Monday evening and continuing overnight into early Tuesday
   morning. The presence of a strong low-level jet and strengthening
   mid-level southwesterly flow will likely foster enough deep-layer
   shear to support storm organization. Given the forecast strength of
   the low-level flow, both isolated strong/gusty winds and a couple
   tornadoes appear possible in the vicinity of the northward-
   developing warm front across the FL Panhandle and southern GA.

   Too much uncertainty exists regarding the quality and northward
   extent of the low-level moisture to support more than 5% severe
   probabilities at this time. Additional storms should also occur
   across much of the FL Peninsula during the day. Although deep-layer
   shear is forecast to be weaker compared to locations farther north,
   it should still be sufficient in concert with weak to potentially
   moderate instability to support isolated strong to severe
   thunderstorms, with occasional damaging winds the main threat.

   ..Gleason.. 02/13/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z