SPC AC 260802

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

   Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...

   A series of upper shortwave troughs will migrate across portions of
   the U.S. on Sunday, bringing a large swath of strong southwesterly
   flow stretching from the southern Plains through the Great
   Lakes/Ohio Valley. The first shortwave trough will pivot eastward
   from the Great Lakes through New England. The second shortwave
   trough will become increasingly cut-off from northern stream flow as
   a closed low develops over the lower CO Valley, and pivots eastward
   toward the AZ/NM border by Monday morning. Downstream from the
   western upper shortwave trough, weak height rises and warming
   temperatures between 850-700 mb are forecast. At the surface, a cold
   front will stretch from the lower OH Valley to central TX early in
   the period. Surface high pressure will build over the central
   Plains, and the cold front will slowly shift southward, extending
   from coastal NC toward northern LA and arching southwest into
   south-central TX by Monday morning.

   ...South-Central TX into LA/MS...

   Severe potential near the aforementioned cold front is uncertain and
   fairly conditional at this time. While 60s F dewpoints will exist
   across the warm sector, surface heating will be limited near the
   front due to widespread cloudiness. Additionally, isolated elevated
   thunderstorms and showers are likely to be ongoing. Weak
   instability, largely driven by moderately steep midlevel lapse rates
   is forecast. However, most guidance shows at least a weak capping
   inversion near 700 mb. Furthermore, while effective shear will be
   moderate to strong, deep-layer flow will be parallel to the front,
   and low-level convergence weak. Additionally, large-scale forcing
   will by weak as the upper trough remains well to the west. While a
   strong/marginally severe storm can not be completely ruled out, the
   overall threat appears too uncertain/conditional to include probs at
   this time.

   ..Leitman.. 02/26/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z