SPC AC 110828

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CST Thu Mar 11 2021

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of the southern
   Plains, where large hail and wind damage will be possible. A
   marginal severe threat may also develop in parts of the central
   Plains.

   ...Southern and Central Plains...
   An upper-level low will move northeastward into the central High
   Plains on Saturday as a 90 to 110 kt mid-level jet moves across the
   southern High Plains. At the surface, a dryline will develop and
   move eastward into western Oklahoma and west-central Texas Saturday
   afternoon.  To the east of the dryline, a relatively moist airmass
   will be in place with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60
   F. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of the dryline during
   the afternoon from the eastern Texas Panhandle southward into
   west-central Texas. The storms are expected to move eastward across
   western Oklahoma and northwest Texas during the late afternoon and
   early evening.

   Elevated thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of
   the period from parts of the Texas Panhandle eastward across
   northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. To the south of this
   activity, a corridor of instability will develop during the late
   morning and afternoon. Model consensus suggests that MLCAPE values
   could reach peak near 1000 J/kg along an axis from San Angelo
   northward to near Childress. This combined with 0-6 km shear near 50
   kt and steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for supercells
   with large hail. As the eastern edge of the mid-level jet moves into
   west-central Texas during the late afternoon, deep-layer shear is
   forecast to increase to around 65 kt. This will make conditions
   increasingly favorable for severe storms during the early to mid
   evening. A squall-line with wind damage potential may develop during
   the early to mid evening. However, any severe threat that develops
   could remain somewhat isolated due to the weak instability.

   Further north into Kansas, the exit region of the mid-level jet is
   forecast to overspread the region during the afternoon. This will
   create strong lift and deep-layer shear, favorable for an isolated
   severe threat. Although organized storms can not be ruled out,
   instability is expected to be very weak due to outflows from the
   morning convection. Areas that are not affected by the morning
   convection may have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and
   hail.

   ..Broyles.. 03/11/2021

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