SPC AC 140809

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0309 AM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS VICINITY EASTWARD INTO
   MISSOURI/ARKANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe weather will likely evolve during mainly during the evening
   across the western Oklahoma vicinity, and then spreading across part
   of Kansas, Oklahoma, and north Texas, and into Missouri/Arkansas and
   vicinity.  Large hail will likely be the main risk, though locally
   damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado, will also be possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   A fast-moving/compact upper low will move quickly across the Four
   Corners to the southern Rockies by evening, and then will continue
   eastward toward Oklahoma overnight.  This low will be the primary
   feature of interest over the U.S. through the period.

   At the surface, an initially diffuse low over the northeastern New
   Mexico vicinity will consolidate/deepen with time, moving across the
   Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle during the evening, and into western
   Oklahoma overnight.  Ahead of the low, a dryline will mix eastward
   across the southern High Plains during the afternoon and early even,
   eventually to be overtaken by a Pacific cold front which should move
   eastward across the southern Plains through the end of the period.

   ...Western Oklahoma vicinity to Missouri/Arkansas/the Arklatex...
   Low-level moisture will stream northward across the southern Plains
   beneath a capping inversion through the day, as southerly flow
   strengthens with time in response to deepening low pressure shifting
   into the southern High Plains.  While the cap will likely hinder
   convective development with southward extent across Texas, a
   conditional late afternoon/early evening initiation of storms may
   occur near the dryline over western Oklahoma/western North Texas. 
   With favorably strong/veering flow with height but modest low-level
   moisture -- due to this area likely remaining on the northwestern
   fringe of the moisture return -- large hail, and locally gusty
   winds, would likely be the primary risks with initial
   severe/supercell storm development into the early evening hours.

   After dark, as the upper system continues to advance and the surface
   low deepens, a strengthening low-level jet -- and associated warm
   advection/QG ascent -- will likely yield a substantial blossoming of
   convective development, much of which will remain elevated and
   particularly so north of an anticipated Kansas/Oklahoma border-area
   warm frontal zone.  As such, large hail will likely remain the
   primary severe potential overnight, as storms increase in coverage
   through the period.  Farther to the south into Texas, low-level
   capping will remain a concern.  However, within a zone south of the
   warm front and north of the more capped airmass -- i.e. ahead of the
   surface low across Oklahoma and possibly north Texas, and later
   perhaps extending as far eastward into southwestern Missouri/western
   Arkansas -- only a shallow stable layer is expected due to a
   diurnally cooled boundary layer.  Here, along with hail potential, a
   couple of stronger, near-surface-based storms could also pose some
   risk for locally damaging winds, or even a tornado or two, through
   the remainder of the period.

   ..Goss.. 03/14/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z