SPC AC 240729

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS WELL AS NORTHEAST KANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong storms will be possible Friday over a portion of the
   Southeast States as well as a portion of northern Kansas.

   ...Carolinas through southern Georgia...

   A progressive shortwave trough will continue northeastward into the
   Northeast States Friday. A strong low-level jet initially from
   eastern NC into the Middle Atlantic will move offshore by mid day.
   Tendency will be for the deeper forcing and stronger low-level winds
   to lift northeast away from the moist warm sector present across the
   Carolinas into the Gulf Coast States. A corridor of modest
   instability should evolve in the pre-frontal warm sector in the
   presence of strong deep shear. While a few strong storms with
   locally strong wind gusts and possibly hail might develop along the
   cold front during the day, tendency for low-level winds to veer and
   weaken in the presence of only shallow forcing suggests overall
   severe threat should remain marginal.  

   ....Lower Mississippi Valley region...

   The front will stall along southern portions of the Gulf Coast
   States during the day, but should begin to move back northward
   during the evening as a southerly low-level jet strengthens.
   Destabilization and isentropic ascent resulting from this process
   will contribute to the development of mostly elevated storms during
   the evening and overnight. A few instances of hail and locally
   strong wind gusts might occur with some of this activity.

   ...North-central through northeast Kansas...

   A weak surface low is expected to develop in association with a
   minor shortwave trough ejecting northeast through the Central Plains
   during the afternoon. Low-level moisture will be limited in this
   region, but strong surface heating and steep lapse rates will
   contribute to marginal instability. A few strong storms may develop
   in the vicinity of a trough/dryline feature and spread east through
   north-central KS. Strong vertical shear will be present, but
   uncertainty regarding amount of destabilization and overall low
   confidence in scenario precludes more than a MRGL risk category at
   this time.

   ..Dial.. 03/24/2021

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