SPC AC 250735

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Saturday across the
   lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions. Other strong to
   severe storms are possible across a portion of the Midwest. Isolated
   damaging wind and large hail are the main threats.

   ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley region...

   Some thunderstorms will probably be ongoing early Saturday, mainly
   across a portion of the TN Valley. There is some uncertainty
   regarding how these early storms evolve, but this activity will
   probably shift northeast and weaken with time. Under the influence
   of a broad fetch of southwesterly low-level winds, richer moisture
   with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F will advect northward
   into this region contributing to moderate instability with up to
   1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Other storms might develop during the evening or
   overnight within the warm advection regime as the low-level jet
   strengthens. A cold front associated with a northern stream
   shortwave trough will approach this region from the northwest and
   likely contribute to the development of additional storms overnight,
   likely consolidating into lines and clusters. This activity will be
   embedded within strong vertical wind profiles supporting the
   potential for a few organized structures capable of mainly isolated
   strong to damaging wind gusts and hail. 

   ...Midwest region...

   Low-level moisture will be more limited in this region. However,
   cold air aloft will compensate and the atmosphere could become at
   least marginally unstable as the boundary layer warms during the
   afternoon. Storms may initiate along frontal zone within a strongly
   sheared environment supportive of a few organized storms capable of
   isolated large hail and damaging wind.

   ..Dial.. 03/25/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z