SPC AC 290706
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Mon Mar 29 2021
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm development will be possible on Wednesday from the
western Gulf Coast northeastward into the Carolinas and Virginia.
Strong wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.
...Western Gulf Coast/Southeast/Southern
Appalachians/Carolinas/Virginia...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
central U.S. on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast
to advance southeastward into the southeastern U.S. being positioned
form the western Gulf Coast to the southern Appalachians by midday.
As surface temperatures warm during the day, pockets of weak
instability are expected to develop, with surface dewpoints ahead of
the front in the lower to mid 60s F. Increasing instability and
low-level convergence along and just ahead of the front will likely
result in thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Near the
front, deep-layer shear is forecast to be in the 45 to 55 kt range.
This combined with steep low-level lapse rates will make isolated
damaging wind gusts a possibility. Hail could also occur with the
stronger cores. Any severe threat is expected to be marginal and
confined to the mid to late afternoon when surface temperatures will
be maximized.
..Broyles.. 03/29/2021
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