SPC AC 050716

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 AM CDT Mon Apr 05 2021

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ARKLATEX
   INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across the lower
   Mississippi Valley with other isolated severe storms possible
   farther north over the middle Mississippi Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   A neutral-tilt mid-level trough and associated closed low will
   slowly move eastward from KS into MO while becoming negatively
   tilted by early Thursday.  In the low levels, an elongated area of
   low pressure centered over KS will develop/deepen as it moves
   north-northeastward into IA by early evening.  A cold front will
   progress eastward across the lower MO Valley and Ozarks while an
   effective boundary decelerates across the lower MS Valley.  

   A strong warm conveyer belt Wednesday morning across the Ozarks will
   likely lead to widespread clouds and showers/thunderstorms across
   much of this area and areas north.  Richer low-level moisture
   (surface dewpoints in the 60s) will reside across the lower MS
   Valley.  Heating and a plume of 7-7.5 deg C mid-level lapse rates
   will contribute to moderate buoyancy developing (1000-1500 J/kg) in
   the Arklatex east to the MS River during the day.  Scattered to
   widespread thunderstorms coalescing into one or more bands will
   likely evolve during the day and push eastward across the MS Valley
   during the evening.  All hazards will be possible with storms across
   the Arklatex due in part to moist low levels co-located with
   enlarged hodographs.  An eventual transition to a mainly a damaging
   wind threat is expected with a tornado risk possibly lingering well
   after dark across the lower MS Valley.  

   Farther north, greater uncertainty exists for severe across parts of
   the lower MO Valley during the day in wake of earlier-day
   shower/thunderstorm activity.  It is possible a bi-modal severe risk
   develops via a narrow corridor of destabilization immediately ahead
   of the front and focused near the surface low over northwest
   MO/southwest IA during the late afternoon.  Isolated damaging gusts
   appear to be the primary threat across the middle MS Valley later in
   the day and into the evening before this activity weakens as it
   encounters weaker instability.

   ..Smith.. 04/05/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z