SPC AC 080728

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHEAST
   GULF COAST STATES AND PARTS OF GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the
   northeast Gulf Coast on Saturday.

   ...MS/AL/GA/FL...
   A mid-level disturbance over the Gulf Coast states, to the south of
   a potent mid-level trough over eastern KS/MO, will likely support a
   continuation of an MCS across the Gulf Coast during the morning and
   perhaps persisting into the afternoon.  A moist and moderately
   unstable boundary layer (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong flow, will
   favor a risk for damaging winds given the likelihood of a linear
   convective mode.  Model guidance (particularly the latest ECMWF)
   shows this activity moving east over the northeast Gulf Coast.  The
   northern periphery of the severe risk will probably be constrained
   by a transition to weaker instability/less moisture farther
   north/northeast across northern and eastern parts of GA.

   ...TN/KY...
   As the primary mid-level shortwave trough moves from eastern KS to
   northern IN during the period, strong southerly low-level flow will
   transport moisture north during the day to the north/east of an MCS
   over the Deep South.  A surface low initially over northeast AR will
   deepen as it moves to southern Lake Michigan by mid evening. 
   Widespread clouds will likely limit the amount of surface heating
   during the day as a band of showers/thunderstorms on the northern
   portion of an MCS moves north-northeast across TN during the
   morning.  A risk for isolated damaging gusts could continue into the
   start of the day-3 period (Saturday morning) and rejuvenate during
   the day as the activity spreads northeast towards the OH River. 
   However, instability will likely remain weak owing to the
   aforementioned concern with heating.  This activity will likely
   weaken by early evening across parts of the OH Valley.

   ..Smith.. 04/08/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z