Aug 12, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 12 07:16:28 UTC 2021 (20210812 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20210812 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20210812 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 14,054 5,850,669 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...
Probabilistic Graphic
20210812 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 14,215 5,882,787 Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...Pembroke Pines, FL...Hollywood, FL...
   SPC AC 120716

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
   FLORIDA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   At least a marginal risk for a tornado or two might evolve across
   south Florida Saturday in association with tropical storm Fred.

   ...South Florida...

   Tropical Storm Fred is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
   reach the southern FL Peninsula Saturday. Based on this forecast,
   low-level shear may become sufficient for a threat of a couple of
   tornadoes with convection developing east of the center.

   ...Elsewhere...

   Numerous pulse and multicell storms will develop from the Northeast
   States into the southern Appalachians and west into the southern and
   central Plains. A few instances of downburst winds could occur with
   the stronger storms, but weak vertical shear and a modest
   thermodynamic environment suggest an organized severe threat is
   unlikely. One exception could be over the central High Plains where
   a belt of slightly stronger flow will reside above southeasterly
   post-frontal upslope winds. However, weak forcing and potential
   capping issues lower confidence in robust thunderstorm initiation at
   this time.

   ..Dial.. 08/12/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z