Oct 27, 2021 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 27 06:56:29 UTC 2021 (20211027 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20211027 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211027 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20211027 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 270656

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 AM CDT Wed Oct 27 2021

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
   contiguous United States on Friday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large mid-level low and associated trough will slowly migrate from
   the OH/TN Valleys and northern Gulf Coast to the VA/Carolinas
   vicinity by early Saturday morning.  A cold front is forecast to
   move into the western Atlantic from the NC coast and into the
   Bahamian archipelago.  It is possible a few storms may linger into
   the start of the day-3 period from overnight Thursday night near the
   NC Outer Banks.  Model guidance differs on the placement of
   potential convection and whether the front has moved offshore.  This
   scenario will be re-evaluated in later outlooks for the possibility
   for a narrow window of time in which a strong storm or two could
   occur during the morning.  Farther south, a stray thunderstorm or
   two is possible over coastal South FL during the morning. 
   Elsewhere, elevated and weak thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
   closer to the mid-level cold pocket across parts of the central
   Appalachians.

   ..Smith.. 10/27/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z