Nov 12, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 12 07:00:20 UTC 2021 (20211112 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20211112 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211112 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20211112 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 120700

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CST Fri Nov 12 2021

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
   on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A large-scale upper trough will remain over much of the eastern
   CONUS on Sunday. A pronounced mid-level shortwave trough embedded
   within the large-scale troughing should move eastward across the
   OH/TN Valleys through the day, eventually reaching the East Coast by
   the end of the period. Due to multiple prior frontal passages,
   substantial low-level moisture should remain confined over the Gulf
   of Mexico and far south FL. Accordingly, instability is currently
   forecast to remain nil ahead of the eastward-progressing shortwave
   trough, with minimal thunderstorm potential apparent across the
   CONUS on Sunday.

   ..Gleason.. 11/12/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z