Nov 13, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 13 07:00:17 UTC 2021 (20211113 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20211113 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211113 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20211113 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 130700

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CST Sat Nov 13 2021

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
   on Monday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   An upper trough should lift northeastward from the eastern states
   across the western Atlantic and Canadian Maritime provinces on
   Monday. In its wake, upper ridging should generally prevail across
   most of the Rockies and Plains. Another upper trough is forecast to
   move quickly eastward across British Columbia and the Pacific
   Northwest through Monday evening, eventually reaching the northern
   Rockies by the end of the period. Surface high pressure initially
   centered over the Southeast should develop slowly eastward towards
   the Atlantic Coast through the day, while lee troughing develops
   over much of the High Plains. While some low-level moisture return
   should occur across parts of the southern Plains through the period,
   thunderstorms appear unlikely across the CONUS owing to a lack of
   instability overlapping large-scale ascent associated with either
   upper trough.

   ..Gleason.. 11/13/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z