Nov 14, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 14 07:18:07 UTC 2021 (20211114 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20211114 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211114 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20211114 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 140718

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0118 AM CST Sun Nov 14 2021

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
   on Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   An upper trough/low should move eastward across western/central
   Canada and the north-central CONUS on Tuesday. At the surface,
   generally shallow and modest low-level moisture should return
   northward through the day over the southern Plains and lower/mid MS
   Valley along/ahead of a cold front. Regardless, a pronounced cap
   will likely inhibit the development of meaningful instability across
   the warm sector, and convection capable of producing lightning
   appears unlikely across the CONUS through the period.

   ..Gleason.. 11/14/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z