SPC AC 150800

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 AM CST Mon Nov 15 2021

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
   States on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A large-scale upper trough/low will continue moving eastward across
   central Canada and the Plains on Wednesday. This trough should
   eventually overspread much of the Midwest/Great Lakes and MS Valley
   by the end of the period. An attendant surface low initially
   centered over southern Manitoba is forecast to develop gradually
   eastward across Ontario through the day in tandem with the upper
   trough/low. A cold front extending from this surface low should
   sweep generally east-southeastward across much of the Great
   Lakes/Midwest, lower/mid MS Valley, and southern Plains.

   Modest low-level moisture return should occur ahead of the cold
   front, particularly across parts of central/east TX into the lower
   MS Valley. However, instability will likely remain weak across the
   warm sector owing to a low-level inversion. This cap should also
   tend to limit potential for convection through much of the day, but
   eventually the low-level frontal forcing should be enough for
   isolated thunderstorms to develop Wednesday evening/night from parts
   of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South
   vicinity. Although there should be some modest enhancement to
   deep-layer shear across these areas, the rather weak instability
   forecast and tendency for convection to be quickly undercut by the
   surging cold front will likely limit the potential for severe
   thunderstorms.

   ..Gleason.. 11/15/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z