SPC AC 190732

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 AM CST Fri Nov 19 2021

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Overall upper pattern is forecast to amplify throughout the day on
   Sunday as a pair of shortwave troughs moving through the central
   eastern CONUS lead to a deepening of the parent upper trough and
   upper ridging moves across CA into the Great Basin. By early Monday
   morning, expansive upper troughing will likely extend from the
   Hudson Bay to the central Gulf Coast, with cyclonic flow throughout
   this trough covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. At the
   same time, upper ridging will likely extend from the Great Basin to
   the central British Columbia/Alberta border. 

   The lead shortwave trough within the deepening parent upper trough
   is expected to move eastward from the central Plains through the Mid
   MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys. An associated surface low will track
   northeastward just ahead of this shortwave, moving from
   south-central OK/north TX northeastward through the TN Valley. Cold
   front attendant to this low will sweep southeastward across the
   southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, and a few afternoon
   thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this front from the
   middle TX Coast into west-central LA. 

   Farther east, a few sea-breeze thunderstorms are possible across
   central and southern FL Sunday afternoon. Additionally, showers and
   thunderstorms will likely increase across the Gulf Stream within the
   warm sector ahead of the approaching shortwave trough and cold
   front. Much of this activity will remain offshore but a few flashes
   are possible over the NC Outer Banks.

   ..Mosier.. 11/19/2021

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