Nov 20, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 20 06:59:14 UTC 2021 (20211120 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20211120 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211120 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20211120 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 200659

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CST Sat Nov 20 2021

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

   ...Synopsis...
   An amplified western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough upper pattern
   is forecast to be in place early Monday morning before progressing
   eastward throughout the day. Some amplification of the upper trough
   is anticipated as it moves eastward towards the Eastern Seaboard
   while the upper ridging deamplifies slightly as it moves into
   Plains. 

   At the surface, a cold front will likely stretch from eastern NY
   southwestward through the Mid-Atlantic and off the central Gulf
   Coast early Monday morning. Stable conditions will persist in the
   wake of this front across much of the central and eastern CONUS. The
   only exception is across southern FL, where a few afternoon
   thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front.

   ..Mosier.. 11/20/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z