SPC AC 210654

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 AM CST Sun Nov 21 2021

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper pattern is forecast to remain progressive on Tuesday, with the
   deep upper trough initially along the Eastern Seaboard moving
   quickly eastward as expansive upper ridging moves from central
   Plains across much of the eastern CONUS. At the same time, upper
   troughing will deepen across the western CONUS, aided by a pair of
   phased shortwave troughs, one moving across the Pacific Northwest
   and northern Rockies and the other moving across the southern
   CA/Baja Peninsula into southern AZ and far northwest Mexico. 

   A large area of surface high pressure will drift across the eastern
   CONUS in the wake of the upper trough, keeping conditions stable.
   Surface pressure will lower across the Plains ahead of the
   approaching western CONUS upper trough, resulting a strong pressure
   gradient and southerly winds across the southern and central Plains.
   Some moisture return will result, but upper 50s dewpoints will
   likely remain confined to areas south of I-10 in TX. 

   Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the CONUS,
   precluding thunderstorm activity. The only exception is across
   eastern AZ/western NM where strong ascent and cold temperatures
   aloft could result in a few updrafts capable of producing lightning.
   However, coverage is currently expected to remain below 10%.

   ..Mosier.. 11/21/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z