SPC AC 220730
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CST Mon Nov 22 2021
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the southern Plains on
Wednesday, but severe storm potential is currently low.
...Synopsis...
An expansive upper trough is forecast to cover much of the western
and central CONUS early Wednesday. This upper trough is expected to
gradually progress eastward, while several embedded shortwave
troughs rotate through it. Guidance continues to suggest this upper
trough will trend toward bifurcation late Wednesday night/early
Thursday morning, with an embedded shortwave remaining progressive
across the Canadian Prairie Provinces and northern Plains while
another less progressive embedded shortwave trough moves across
southern CA, western/southern AZ, and the northern Baja Peninsula.
A surface low will likely be centered over the MN Arrowhead
Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward to
another low over the eastern OK Panhandle. This cold front is
forecast to move southeastward throughout the period and is expected
to stretch from eastern Lower MI southwestward into the TX Hill
Country by early Thursday morning. Low-level moisture return ahead
of this front will bring mid 50s dewpoints into central/eastern OK
and low 60s dewpoints into north TX. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected in the vicinity of the front amid this increased moisture
and buoyancy. Much of this thunderstorm activity will likely be
north of the front and buoyancy will be modest, limiting the overall
severe storm potential. Even so, a few updrafts may be strong enough
to produce isolated hail, although anticipated low coverage and
limited predictability preclude introducing any probabilities.
..Mosier.. 11/22/2021
CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
|
| 
)
