SPC AC 230739

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 AM CST Tue Nov 23 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Hill
   Country/south Texas into the Arklatex region, but severe storm
   potential is currently low.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough is expected to extend from western Ontario
   southwestward across the Plains and Southwest through the central
   Baja Peninsula early Thursday morning. Medium-range guidance is in
   good agreement that this upper trough will fully bifurcate during
   the period, with the northern portion continuing
   eastward/southeastward and the southern part developing into a
   closed circulation over the central Baja Peninsula. 

   At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from a low over
   far northeastern Ontario southwestward to the Edwards Plateau in TX
   Thursday morning. Modest low-level moisture and buoyancy are
   expected to be in place ahead of this front from the TX Hill Country
   into the Arklatex, and showers and isolated thunderstorm will likely
   be ongoing in this region at the start of the period. Much of this
   region will be displaced south of the stronger flow aloft, limiting
   the overall severe potential. The only exception is around the
   Arklatex will a storm or two could briefly become strong enough to
   produce small hail. The cold front is expected to move off the TX
   coast by Thursday evening, with stable conditions in its wake.

   Dry and stable conditions are expected elsewhere across the Plains
   as well as over the remaining portions of the CONUS.

   ..Mosier.. 11/23/2021

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