Nov 24, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 24 08:04:16 UTC 2021 (20211124 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20211124 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211124 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20211124 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 240804

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 AM CST Wed Nov 24 2021

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   No thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the contiguous
   United States on Friday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper troughing is forecast to cover the eastern CONUS early Friday
   morning, while an upper low remains centered over the Baja Peninsula
   and a belt a strong westerlies stretches from the northeast Pacific
   Ocean into the northern High Plains. The eastern CONUS upper trough
   is expected to remain progressive, quickly moving off the Eastern
   Seaboard while becoming more negatively tilted with time. A
   shortwave trough will move quickly through the westerlies, moving
   across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies and reaching the
   northern High Plains by early Saturday morning. At the same time,
   the upper low over Baja is expected to slowly drift eastward into
   northwest Mexico. 

   At the surface, a cold front will likely stretch from southern New
   England southwestward through the eastern Carolinas and off the
   coast of the central FL Peninsula early Friday. This front will move
   eastward/southeastward throughout the day, but limited low-level
   moisture and buoyancy preceding the front will preclude thunderstorm
   development. Stable conditions are also expected elsewhere across
   the CONUS.

   ..Mosier.. 11/24/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z