Nov 25, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 25 07:22:16 UTC 2021 (20211125 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20211125 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211125 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20211125 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 250722

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 AM CST Thu Nov 25 2021

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A pair of shortwave troughs, one initially over the northern Plains
   within the northern stream and the other initially over northwest
   Mexico within the southern stream, will both progress eastward
   throughout the day while undergoing minor phasing. Current
   expectation is for the northern-stream shortwave trough to be
   centered over the Upper OH Valley by early Sunday morning, while the
   southern-stream shortwave ends the period entering the Lower MS
   Valley. 

   Surface low associated with the northern-stream system is also
   forecast to track eastward and end the period over the Upper OH
   Valley. At the same time, the cold front attendant to this low will
   surge southeastward across the central/southern Plains and Mid MS
   and OH Valley. Secondary surface low development is also expected
   ahead of the southern-stream shortwave over the western Gulf of
   Mexico. This will limit moisture return, keeping the low-level
   moisture and buoyancy needed for thunderstorm development offshore. 

   In all, the progressive pattern will continue to bring dry,
   continental air into the CONUS on Saturday, and no thunderstorms are
   expected.

   ..Mosier.. 11/25/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z