SPC AC 250722
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CST Thu Nov 25 2021
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.
...Synopsis...
A pair of shortwave troughs, one initially over the northern Plains
within the northern stream and the other initially over northwest
Mexico within the southern stream, will both progress eastward
throughout the day while undergoing minor phasing. Current
expectation is for the northern-stream shortwave trough to be
centered over the Upper OH Valley by early Sunday morning, while the
southern-stream shortwave ends the period entering the Lower MS
Valley.
Surface low associated with the northern-stream system is also
forecast to track eastward and end the period over the Upper OH
Valley. At the same time, the cold front attendant to this low will
surge southeastward across the central/southern Plains and Mid MS
and OH Valley. Secondary surface low development is also expected
ahead of the southern-stream shortwave over the western Gulf of
Mexico. This will limit moisture return, keeping the low-level
moisture and buoyancy needed for thunderstorm development offshore.
In all, the progressive pattern will continue to bring dry,
continental air into the CONUS on Saturday, and no thunderstorms are
expected.
..Mosier.. 11/25/2021
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