SPC AC 260555

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1155 PM CST Thu Nov 25 2021

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Sunday
   through Sunday night.

   ...Discussion...
   Large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern U.S. may undergo
   some amplification/sharpening near the Atlantic Seaboard during this
   period.  It appears that this will include one significant short
   wave impulse digging southeast of the upper Great Lakes region into
   the Northeast, within the primary belt of westerlies emanating from
   the mid-latitude Pacific.  Models suggest that associated forcing
   for ascent may contribute to renewed cyclogenesis offshore of the
   northern Mid Atlantic/southern New England coast, accompanied by a
   reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the East.

   Within the base of the mid-level troughing, models indicate that the
   remnants of a cut-off low (now over the Baja vicinity) will rapidly
   accelerate across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico/Gulf coast, and
   east of the Atlantic coast by Sunday evening.  This may be
   accompanied by mid/upper-level moisture return and weak high-based
   convection across parts of the Gulf coast vicinity and Florida
   Peninsula.  However, generally dry and stable near-surface
   conditions are forecast to persist, with the low/mid-level moisture
   return to Texas on Saturday becoming suppressed southward across the
   northwestern into central Gulf of Mexico Sunday through Sunday
   night.

   ..Kerr.. 11/26/2021

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