Nov 27, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 27 05:55:26 UTC 2021 (20211127 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20211127 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211127 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20211127 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 270555

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1155 PM CST Fri Nov 26 2021

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday
   through Monday night.

   ...Discussion...
   It appears that mid-level troughing will take on more of a negative
   tilt orientation off the Atlantic Seaboard during this period, as
   the most vigorous embedded short wave perturbation pivots northeast
   of the northern Mid Atlantic and New England coast.  Models indicate
   that associated large-scale forcing for ascent will contribute to
   considerable further deepening of a surface cyclone, east/southeast
   of the Cape Cod vicinity into the Canadian Maritimes by late Monday
   night.

   In the wake of this feature, and ahead of building mid-level ridging
   across the northeastern Pacific into the Pacific Northwest and
   Canadian Rockies, much of interior North America will remain under
   the influence of northwesterly flow.  Cold surface ridging will also
   likely be maintained beneath a confluent mid-level regime across
   much of the Gulf Coast/Southeast and northeastern Gulf of Mexico,
   contributing to the continuation of generally dry and/or stable
   conditions across most of the U.S.

   ..Kerr.. 11/27/2021

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