SPC AC 280520

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 PM CST Sat Nov 27 2021

   Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Tuesday
   through Tuesday night.

   ...Discussion...
   In the wake of a deep lower/mid tropospheric cyclone forecast to
   migrate north-northeast of the Canadian Maritimes, mid-level flow
   may trend a bit more zonal east of the Rockies through the Atlantic
   Seaboard during this period.  While the pattern does appear likely
   to remain broadly confluent across much of the Southeast, lower/mid
   tropospheric troughing may develop and deepen across much of the
   Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains, as a strong westerly
   mid/upper jet rounds the crest of prominent ridging elongating from
   the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific into the Great Basin.  At
   the same time, perturbations may continue to gradually emerge from
   persistent weak troughing in the high-level westerlies, across the
   subtropical eastern Pacific through the northern Mexican Plateau
   vicinity.

   While models suggest that this regime may allow for modest low-level
   moistening to commence across the western Gulf of Mexico into
   northwestern Gulf coastal areas Tuesday through Tuesday night, it
   appears that this will be confined to a generally shallow
   surface-based layer.  Dry and/or stable conditions likely will
   otherwise prevail across much of the U.S., with negligible risk for
   thunderstorm activity.

   ..Kerr.. 11/28/2021

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