SPC AC 070808

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0208 AM CST Tue Dec 07 2021

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United
   States on Thursday.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Large-scale upper troughing is expected to amplify over the western
   CONUS on Thursday. A southern-stream shortwave trough initially just
   west of Baja California should move quickly northeastward over
   northern Mexico through the day. This feature is forecast to
   eventually reach the southern Plains late Thursday night into early
   Friday morning while being absorbed into the synoptic-scale upper
   trough over the western states. Robust lee cyclogenesis appears
   likely over the central High Plains through the period. A strong
   low-level mass response will transport rich low-level moisture from
   the Gulf of Mexico northward across central/east TX, the lower MS
   Valley, and Mid-South by the end of the period. Mainly elevated
   convection appears possible across this general region in the warm
   and moist low-level advection regime. MUCAPE is forecast to remain
   fairly muted owing to modest mid-level lapse rates, which should
   temper the overall severe potential with any thunderstorms that can
   develop on Thursday. Across the Pacific Northwest, isolated
   lightning flashes appear possible mainly along/near the WA/OR Coast
   with low-topped convection as cold mid-level temperatures associated
   with a progressive shortwave trough overspread this region.

   ..Gleason.. 12/07/2021

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