SPC AC 140731

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0131 AM CST Tue Dec 14 2021

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE ARKLATEX AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A marginal wind-damage threat is expected to develop on Thursday
   across parts of the Arklatex and mid Mississippi Valley.

   ....Arklatex/Mid Mississippi Valley...
   A shortwave trough will move east-northeastward across the mid
   Mississippi Valley on Thursday as west to southwest mid-level flow
   becomes established in the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold
   front will advance southeastward across the Arklatex and southern
   Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid
   60s F should yield SBCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range by
   afternoon. As low-level convergence increases ahead of the front,
   isolated to scattered convective initiation is forecast to take
   place in the early to mid afternoon. The weak instability combined
   with moderate deep-layer shear may be enough for a marginal
   wind-damage threat, mainly from northeast Texas into Arkansas. The
   best chance for strong wind gusts may be in southern Arkansas where
   the combination of instability and shear is forecast to become
   maximized relative to the surrounding areas. Any severe threat may
   persist into the early evening before weakening instability
   decreases the threat.

   ..Broyles.. 12/14/2021

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