SPC AC 180800

   Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   No severe thunderstorms are expected across the Continental United
   States on Monday or Monday Night.

   ...Synopsis...
   An amplifying mid-level shortwave trough will move across the
   northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Monday Night. As this trough
   amplifies, surface cyclogenesis is expected over the Gulf with a
   surface low approaching the western Coast of Florida by 12Z Tuesday.

   ...Northern and central Florida...
   A weakening cold front will be stalled somewhere near central
   Florida on Monday morning. This front will start to lift northward
   as a warm front through the day and into the overnight hours as a
   strengthening surface low approaches from the west. Dewpoints are
   expected to recover into the upper 60s across much of the Peninsula
   by early Tuesday morning. As this area of low pressure moves closer,
   hodographs are expected to enlarge with wind profiles favorable for
   supercells and sufficient low-level shear to support some low-level
   rotation. Differences in timing/evolution of the wave are the
   primary limiting factors for severe probabilities at this time.
   While at least a marginal severe threat is expected as the surface
   low crosses the Florida Peninsula, it is still uncertain whether
   sufficient instability and storm coverage will move onshore before
   12Z Tuesday.

   ..Bentley.. 12/18/2021

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