Dec 20, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 20 08:27:22 UTC 2021 (20211220 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20211220 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20211220 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20211220 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 200827

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 AM CST Mon Dec 20 2021

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated general thunderstorms are possible along a portion of the
   West Coast into interior northern California, mainly Wednesday
   evening and night.

   ...West Coast and northern CA...
   In the wake of a lead shortwave impulse shifting east from the
   Northwest to the northern Rockies, a more amplified trough will
   approach the Pacific Northwest coast by 12Z/Thu. In response,
   onshore flow will be maintained but more importantly strengthen,
   especially during the latter half of the period. While buoyancy will
   likely remain scant with surface dew points peaking in the mid to
   upper 40s, steep low to mid-level lapse rates and increasing
   large-scale ascent may prove sufficient for sporadic lightning
   production along the immediate coast. A low-probability thunder
   threat may spread into interior northern CA as well, mainly on
   Wednesday night.

   ..Grams.. 12/20/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z