SPC AC 250747

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 AM CST Sat Dec 25 2021

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the California Coast
   and from eastern Oklahoma into the Ohio Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level trough is forecast to move from somewhere near the
   California Coast Monday morning to the southern High Plains by
   Tuesday morning. As this trough crosses the Rockies, expect strong
   lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado early Tuesday morning. A warm
   front is forecast to extend from the surface low across northern
   Oklahoma/southern Kansas and into the Tennessee Valley. 

   ...Eastern Plains into the Ohio Valley...
   Significant mass response is expected across the southern Plains as
   a result of the upper-level shortwave trough and associated strong
   jet streak approaching the region. This will result in a
   strengthening low-level jet across much of the Plains and increasing
   isentropic ascent north of the warm front between 06Z and 12Z
   Tuesday. The strengthening low-level jet will also bring Gulf
   moisture northward which is expected to result in some buoyancy to
   support thunderstorms. While sufficient for thunderstorms, the
   moisture will likely not be great enough to support greater
   instability necessary for a severe weather threat.

   ..Bentley.. 12/25/2021

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z