Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
74,723
6,430,633
Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...Little Rock, AR...Clarksville, TN...Allen, TX...
SPC AC 010042
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Fri Dec 31 2021
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight across parts
of the South-Central States towards the Tennessee Valley.
...01z Update...
Earlier thoughts regarding severe weather tonight continue. Severe
thunderstorms should increase along a corridor from northeast
TX/southeast OK into the TN Valley later this evening.
Over the last few hours, sustained weak warm advection appeared to
be the primary mechanism for isolated low-topped supercells that
developed over northern GA. Several of these cells struggled to
produce lightning, though updrafts were organized and at least one
brief tornado was noted over Carroll County GA. While this activity
should remain weak over the next few hours, have opted to expand 2
percent tornado probabilities south along the warm front across
northern GA to account for this low risk.
Farther west, 00z soundings this evening exhibit substantial capping
at 850mb at SHV/JAN this evening. LLJ will increase across the
Arklatex over the next 3-6hr and this should aid boundary-layer
moistening into southeast OK/AR/western TN as convection should
remain suppressed along I-20 across the warm sector until capping
weakens. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage
across the higher-risk corridor as moisture/instability advance
north into a more favorable region of warm advection.
..Darrow.. 01/01/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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