Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...
2 %
141,305
13,695,556
New Orleans, LA...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 011236
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging winds and tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong,
will be possible through early tonight, especially across the
Tennessee Valley.
...TN Valley and vicinity through tonight...
Convection has persisted through the early morning hours along a
baroclinic zone demarcating the northwest edge of the richer
low-level moisture from AR into TN/KY. The convection has
reinforced this boundary and it is unlikely to return northward
today, given the lack of strong cyclogenesis as a result of an
expansive cold air mass across the central U.S. that will undercut
the stronger forcing for ascent in advance of the primary shortwave
trough over AZ/UT this morning. Even though the main surface
cyclone will not be particularly intense and will develop farther
northeast away from the warm sector (in tandem with an ejecting
shortwave trough now over TX/OK), strong deep-layer wind fields and
vertical shear will persist through the day and into tonight in the
warm sector across the TN Valley.
Given the persistence of the subtropical ridge over FL and only
glancing/small height falls through the day, much of the convection
may remain confined to the convection-reinforced frontal zone.
Still, there will be the potential for embedded supercells within a
broken band of storms along the front, and a lower chance for a
couple of supercells in the open warm sector along diffuse
confluence zones a little south of the front this afternoon/evening.
Effective bulk shear of 60-70 kt, effective SRH near 300 m2/s2, and
MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg will conditionally support supercells
capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and marginally
severe hail. The prospects for a strong tornado or two will likely
hinge on pre-frontal supercell development (which is uncertain) from
northern MS into northern AL and TN late this afternoon/evening.
The frontal convection will spread southeastward through the
overnight hours, with a gradually lessening severe threat and
shrinking warm sector centered on AL toward the end of the period.
..Thompson/Kerr.. 01/01/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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