New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 011623
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TN...NORTHERN
MS/AL...SOUTH-CENTRAL KY...
...SUMMARY...
Tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, along with damaging
winds will be possible through tonight, especially across the
Tennessee Valley.
...Ark-La-Tex to the TN Valley...
Convection has persisted along a baroclinic zone demarcating the
northwest edge of the richer low-level moisture from the Ark-La-Tex
into western TN/KY. The convection has reinforced this boundary with
modest pressure rises behind it, resulting in it receding southeast
in the Mid-South. It is very unlikely to return north, given the
lack of appreciable cyclogenesis as a result of an expansive cold
air mass across the central U.S. that will undercut the stronger
forcing for ascent in advance of the primary shortwave trough over
the Four Corners. Even though the main surface cyclone will not be
intense and will develop farther away from the warm sector (in
tandem with an ejecting shortwave trough over KS/OK), strong
deep-layer wind fields and vertical shear will persist through the
day and into tonight in the warm sector across the TN Valley.
Given the persistence of the subtropical ridge over FL and only
glancing/small height falls through the day, much of the convection
may remain confined to the convection-reinforced frontal zone.
Still, there will be the potential for embedded supercells within a
broken band of storms along the front, and a lower chance for a
few supercells in the open warm sector along diffuse confluence
zones a little south of the front later this afternoon/evening.
Effective bulk shear of 60-70 kt and MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg will
conditionally support supercells capable of producing tornadoes,
damaging winds, and marginally severe hail. The prospects for a
couple strong tornadoes will likely hinge on pre-frontal supercell
development that is not entirely undercut by the surface front. This
is most likely from northern portions of MS/AL into middle TN where
effective SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2 should be common late this
afternoon/evening. The frontal convection will spread southeast
through the overnight hours, with a gradually lessening severe
threat and shrinking warm sector centered on AL toward the end of
the period.
..Grams/Karstens.. 01/01/2022
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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