Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 041928
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CST Tue Jan 04 2022
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the ongoing forecast. A few flashes are still
possible off the Washington coast for the next several hours, but
coverage will be less than 10%. A flash or two is also possible off
the NC coast early Wednesday morning, but coverage is expected to be
less than 10% here as well.
..Mosier.. 01/04/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 04 2022/
...Coastal WA...
Warming profiles aloft amid rising mid-level heights and resultant
lowering of equilibrium levels, in addition to marginal
boundary-layer moisture, will reduce the potential for low-topped
convection deep enough to produce lightning.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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