SPC AC 050504

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1104 PM CST Tue Jan 04 2022

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms may occur over far eastern North Carolina on
   Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
   continental United States.

   ...Synopsis...
   In the mid-levels, broad cyclonic flow across much of the
   northeastern CONUS will amplify, as a 100 kt jet streak moving
   across the Ohio River Valley works to intensify a shortwave trough
   situated over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a sub-1000-mb cyclone
   over the Great Lakes should intensify further through the day as it
   transits eastward into southern Quebec. Subtle confluence ahead of a
   cold front associated with the strong area of low pressure will
   belatedly draw moisture inland across much of the Eastern Seaboard,
   supporting a few thunderstorms across the Outer Banks and coastal
   vicinity. 

   00z RAOBS and surface observations across much of the East Coast
   show dry surface conditions in the wake of a prior frontal passage.
   With limited surface moisture available, thunderstorm chances will
   be confined to coastal portions of NC closest to deeper moisture
   return over the western Atlantic. Model projections and linear
   extrapolation of current buoy observations do show upper 50s to low
   60s F dewpoints will be possible near and inshore of Cape Hatteras
   by 12z. Aided by surface confluence ahead of the front, and weak
   mid-level height falls from the intensifying trough to the
   northwest, a few thunderstorms may develop before quickly moving
   offshore. In spite of meager CAPE profiles with westward extent,
   model soundings do show moderate wind fields with effective shear of
   40-50 kts owing to the strong flow aloft. While unlikely given the
   limited buoyancy, a low chance for a strong wind gust may accompany
   any robust convection that can become established before moving
   offshore. Given the high uncertainty and limited potential for
   strong/organized convection, severe probabilities will likely remain
   below 5%.

   A few peripheral lightning strikes may also occur across southern
   portions of the Florida Peninsula and in the vicinity of Cape Cod.
   However, these areas appear to be well below the 10% general thunder
   threshold, given only subtle synoptic ascent and limited surface
   moisture/buoyancy respectively.

   ..Lyons/Lietman.. 01/05/2022

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