SPC AC 051226

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0626 AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022

   Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated lightning flashes will be possible, mainly this
   afternoon/evening along the southeast Florida coast, the Outer Banks
   of North Carolina, and extreme southeast New England.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large-scale trough will persist over the central/eastern CONUS as
   embedded shortwave troughs dig southeastward from the northern
   Rockies toward KS/OK, and eject east-northeastward from the lower
   Great Lakes/upper OH Valley across New England.  A reinforcing surge
   of cold air is expected across the central/southern Plains by
   tonight, while a developing baroclinic zone will move
   eastward/offshore of the Mid Atlantic/New England coasts to the
   south of a surface cyclone moving along the Saint Lawrence Valley. 
   Air mass modification from the southeast FL coast to the Outer Banks
   and extreme southeast New England may result in sufficient
   destabilization and buoyancy depth for isolated lightning flashes
   with embedded convective elements this afternoon into this evening.

   Otherwise, a modifying air mass will return northward from the
   western Gulf of Mexico toward LA.  However, sufficient
   destabilization and forcing for ascent for thunderstorms is not
   expected prior to the end of this forecast period.

   ..Thompson/Kerr.. 01/05/2022

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