Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 051623
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022
Valid 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly this
afternoon/evening along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and far
southeast Massachusetts.
...Outer Banks of NC...
Within the warm conveyor along a baroclinic zone that will shift
offshore this evening, showers might sufficiently deepen into a
couple thunderstorms during the late afternoon to early evening.
Greater thunderstorm potential will be largely relegated off the
coast.
...Far southeast MA...
While buoyancy will be scant and likely elevated above a
near-surface inversion, strengthening large-scale ascent downstream
of a potent Great Lakes shortwave trough may prove adequate for a
thunderstorm or two to occur in the Martha's Vineyard vicinity
before convection shifts entirely offshore.
...Lower MS Valley...
A modifying air mass will return northward from the western Gulf
with elevated showers overnight. However, elevated instability is
expected to remain insufficient for lightning production prior to
12Z.
..Grams/Squitieri.. 01/05/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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