Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 051955
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Wed Jan 05 2022
Valid 052000Z - 061200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly this
afternoon/evening along the Outer Banks of North Carolina and far
southeast Massachusetts.
...20Z Update...
No changes needed to the previous outlook.
..Mosier.. 01/05/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 05 2022/
...Outer Banks of NC...
Within the warm conveyor along a baroclinic zone that will shift
offshore this evening, showers might sufficiently deepen into a
couple thunderstorms during the late afternoon to early evening.
Greater thunderstorm potential will be largely relegated off the
coast.
...Far southeast MA...
While buoyancy will be scant and likely elevated above a
near-surface inversion, strengthening large-scale ascent downstream
of a potent Great Lakes shortwave trough may prove adequate for a
thunderstorm or two to occur in the Martha's Vineyard vicinity
before convection shifts entirely offshore.
...Lower MS Valley...
A modifying air mass will return northward from the western Gulf
with elevated showers overnight. However, elevated instability is
expected to remain insufficient for lightning production prior to
12Z.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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