SPC AC 060540

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1140 PM CST Wed Jan 05 2022

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Aside from a strike or two over the central Gulf Coastal areas,
   thunderstorms are not expected today.

   ...Discussion...
   As an upper trough shifts out of the central U.S. and across the
   eastern half of the country today, ridging will prevail over the
   West.  Overnight, as the eastern trough continues to advance, a
   second trough will approach the Pacific Northwest, reaching the
   coast by Friday morning.

   At the surface, a weak frontal wave is forecast to shift
   east-northeastward across the Southeast, along a remnant baroclinic
   zone across this area.  As the low shifts offshore and deepens
   tonight, the trailing cold front will advance eastward across the
   Gulf Stream, and southward into northern Florida and the northern
   Gulf of Mexico.

   As mentioned in prior forecasts, scattered showers are forecast to
   evolve ahead of the cold front across the central Gulf Coast
   states/Southeast, and should eventually organize into low-topped
   frontal convective line.  However, models continue to depict warm
   mid-level temperatures, with what meager CAPE is expected to evolve
   likely to remain shallow, beneath the warm layer.  With convective
   growth thus unlikely to ascend to layers sufficiently cold for
   lightning generation, few -- if any -- flashes are expected.  Still,
   locally gusty/convectively enhanced winds may occur with passage of
   the line of showers.

   Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.

   ..Goss/Moore.. 01/06/2022

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