Jan 6, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 6 12:31:44 UTC 2022 (20220106 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220106 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220106 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220106 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220106 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220106 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 061231

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0631 AM CST Thu Jan 06 2022

   Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The threat for thunderstorms will remain minimal across the
   contiguous United States through tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   A midlevel shortwave trough approaching the lower OH and TN Valleys
   today will reach the Mid-Atlantic overnight.  At the surface, an
   Arctic air mass will spread southeastward across TX and the lower MS
   Valley today, with only weak cyclogenesis expected along the
   baroclinic zone which will be south of the stronger forcing for
   ascent with the midlevel trough.  Some shallow, elevated convection
   is ongoing this morning across the Mid-South, on the leading edge of
   returning moisture above the surface.  However, the returning air
   mass is only partially modified, and the surface warm sector today
   will be (at best) weakly unstable and displaced south of the
   stronger forcing for ascent.  Given relatively warm midlevel
   temperatures and only weak buoyancy/ascent, the potential for
   thunderstorms appears too limited to warrant an outlook area today
   along the northern Gulf coast or tonight along the eastern Gulf
   coast.

   Air mass modification across the western Atlantic will lead to some
   destabilization ahead of the cold front moving across the Southeast
   overnight, but any threat for thunderstorms is expected to remain
   offshore.

   ..Thompson/Kerr.. 01/06/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z