Jan 7, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 7 12:17:43 UTC 2022 (20220107 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220107 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220107 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220107 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220107 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220107 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071217

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0617 AM CST Fri Jan 07 2022

   Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across south Florida today
   into early tonight, and mainly tonight along the Texas coast.

   ...Synopsis...
   Within the primary polar jet stream, one shortwave trough and an
   associated deepening cyclone will move off the New England coast
   during the day, while a couple of upstream troughs progress inland
   over the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and northern Great
   Basin.  The majority of the CONUS east of the Rockies is under the
   influence of a continental polar air mass, with the only exceptions
   being across south FL today and along the TX coast overnight.  After
   morning convection dissipates near the FL Keys, a surface cold front
   moving southward across central into south FL may help focus
   isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon through early
   tonight near the southeast FL coast.  Otherwise, moisture return
   will resume across the TX coast by tonight, with sufficient
   moistening just above the surface to support an isolated
   thunderstorm threat overnight within a weak warm advection regime.

   ..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/07/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z