Jan 9, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 9 05:40:40 UTC 2022 (20220109 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220109 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220109 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 124,526 10,291,937 Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220109 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 124,456 10,360,936 Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220109 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 125,017 10,496,611 Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220109 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 58,958 4,608,255 Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...Beaumont, TX...Lake Charles, LA...
   SPC AC 090540

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1140 PM CST Sat Jan 08 2022

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe storms will be possible today in the central
   Gulf Coast states.

   ...Central Gulf Coast States...
   An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains
   today as flow remains from the west-southwest across much of the
   southeastern U.S. A belt of strong low-level flow will move eastward
   across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. The southern
   edge of the stronger low-level flow will be in the lower Mississippi
   Valley, where moisture advection will occur during the day. By early
   afternoon, surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F across much of
   Louisiana and Mississippi ahead of a cold front approaching from the
   northwest. The front will focus convective development this
   afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday and
   move east-southeastward across Louisiana, central Mississippi and
   central Alabama this afternoon. The airmass is forecast to be
   moderately unstable ahead of the storms with MLCAPE peaking in the
   1000 to 2000 J/kg range by late afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast
   soundings from near Jackson, Mississippi eastward to Montgomery,
   Alabama have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 kt range with some
   directional shear in the boundary layer. This should be enough for
   supercell development with cells that remain discrete along and
   ahead of the front. Rotating storms may produce isolated damaging
   wind gusts and be accompanied by a marginal tornado threat.

   However, there are a few limiting factors for today's scenario. the
   first is that the low-level jet will move eastward away from the
   region during the afternoon. The second is that large-scale ascent
   will be limited. The third is that surface winds are forecast to
   gradually veer ahead of the front. For these reasons, any severe
   threat is expected to remain marginal and localized.

   ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/09/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z