New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 091250
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Sun Jan 09 2022
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM EAST
CENTRAL LA ACROSS SOUTHERN MS TO SOUTHWESTERN AL...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging gusts, a couple of tornadoes, and isolated large hail will
be possible today across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and
Alabama.
...LA/MS/AL area through late evening...
A positive-tilt, southern stream trough will phase gradually with a
deep northern stream trough over the Great Lakes. In the immediate
wake of the Great Lakes midlevel trough, a continental polar air
mass will spread southeastward across the OH/TN/lower MS Valleys and
reach the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Moisture return in
advance of the associated cold front has brought boundary-layer
dewpoints in the mid 60s as far north as southern AR and central MS
(with near 70 F along the northwest Gulf coast) this morning, and
the moisture will continue to spread northeastward today across MS
and central/southern AL. The primary low-level jet will develop
eastward from the Ark-La-Miss this morning along the north edge of
the warm/moist sector, and continue eastward across northern MS/AL
during the day to north GA by this evening.
Midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km per regional 12z soundings and
pockets of surface heating will combine with the aforementioned
moisture advection to support MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg in the
warm sector from later this morning into the afternoon. Though
low-level shear will tend to weaken from west-to-east during the
day, 12z soundings suggest the warm sector will destabilize and
convective inhibition will be minimal by late morning, which should
support additional storm development prior to weakening of vertical
shear. Effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt and effective SRH of
150-200 m2/s2 will support the potential for a few supercells
capable of producing damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes, and
isolated large hail before vertical shear weakens and the threat
diminishes by this evening.
...Lower TX coast this afternoon/evening...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into this
evening along the lower TX coast, where the reinforcing synoptic
cold front intersects a pre-existing surface trough. A couple of
strong storms will be possible given moderate buoyancy this
afternoon, but vertical shear will be relatively weak, and organized
severe storms appear unlikely.
..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/09/2022
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