Jan 9, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 9 12:50:11 UTC 2022 (20220109 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220109 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220109 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 43,616 2,019,671 Jackson, MS...Hattiesburg, MS...Meridian, MS...Clinton, MS...Pearl, MS...
MARGINAL 81,902 8,970,550 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220109 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 43,321 1,992,187 Jackson, MS...Hattiesburg, MS...Meridian, MS...Clinton, MS...Pearl, MS...
2 % 73,724 7,666,250 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220109 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 43,398 1,992,575 Jackson, MS...Hattiesburg, MS...Meridian, MS...Clinton, MS...Pearl, MS...
5 % 82,470 9,045,399 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220109 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 72,963 5,297,294 Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Lafayette, LA...Beaumont, TX...
   SPC AC 091250

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0650 AM CST Sun Jan 09 2022

   Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM EAST
   CENTRAL LA ACROSS SOUTHERN MS TO SOUTHWESTERN AL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging gusts, a couple of tornadoes, and isolated large hail will
   be possible today across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and
   Alabama.

   ...LA/MS/AL area through late evening...
   A positive-tilt, southern stream trough will phase gradually with a
   deep northern stream trough over the Great Lakes.  In the immediate
   wake of the Great Lakes midlevel trough, a continental polar air
   mass will spread southeastward across the OH/TN/lower MS Valleys and
   reach the northern Gulf of Mexico tonight.  Moisture return in
   advance of the associated cold front has brought boundary-layer
   dewpoints in the mid 60s as far north as southern AR and central MS
   (with near 70 F along the northwest Gulf coast) this morning, and
   the moisture will continue to spread northeastward today across MS
   and central/southern AL.  The primary low-level jet will develop
   eastward from the Ark-La-Miss this morning along the north edge of
   the warm/moist sector, and continue eastward across northern MS/AL
   during the day to north GA by this evening.

   Midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km per regional 12z soundings and
   pockets of surface heating will combine with the aforementioned
   moisture advection to support MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg in the
   warm sector from later this morning into the afternoon.  Though
   low-level shear will tend to weaken from west-to-east during the
   day, 12z soundings suggest the warm sector will destabilize and
   convective inhibition will be minimal by late morning, which should
   support additional storm development prior to weakening of vertical
   shear.  Effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt and effective SRH of
   150-200 m2/s2 will support the potential for a few supercells
   capable of producing damaging winds, a couple of tornadoes, and
   isolated large hail before vertical shear weakens and the threat
   diminishes by this evening.

   ...Lower TX coast this afternoon/evening...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into this
   evening along the lower TX coast, where the reinforcing synoptic
   cold front intersects a pre-existing surface trough.  A couple of
   strong storms will be possible given moderate buoyancy this
   afternoon, but vertical shear will be relatively weak, and organized
   severe storms appear unlikely.

   ..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/09/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z