Jan 9, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 9 16:10:09 UTC 2022 (20220109 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220109 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220109 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 44,857 2,386,530 Montgomery, AL...Jackson, MS...Auburn, AL...Hattiesburg, MS...Meridian, MS...
MARGINAL 63,786 7,733,311 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220109 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 44,709 2,372,144 Montgomery, AL...Jackson, MS...Auburn, AL...Hattiesburg, MS...Meridian, MS...
2 % 56,266 6,647,254 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220109 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 45,122 2,393,304 Montgomery, AL...Jackson, MS...Auburn, AL...Hattiesburg, MS...Meridian, MS...
5 % 63,605 7,767,876 New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220109 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 48,737 3,592,311 Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Gulfport, MS...Hattiesburg, MS...
   SPC AC 091610

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1010 AM CST Sun Jan 09 2022

   Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHERN AL....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible today
   across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

   ...LA/MS/AL...
   A persistent MCS continues to track eastward across central MS late
   this morning.  This cluster of storms is within a baroclinic zone
   along the northern edge of returning low-level moisture, with
   dewpoints in the upper 60s across southern MS and southwest AL. 
   Visible satellite imagery shows considerable breaks in the clouds
   over this region, helping to mix the boundary-layer and destabilize
   the air mass.  Moisture will continue to increase across southern AL
   through the afternoon, with a corridor of MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg
   expected.

   The storms over central MS appear slightly elevated at this time. 
   However, continued heating should eventually result in surface-based
   convection.  Vertical shear profiles are favorable for supercells,
   and recent CAM guidance also suggests that semi-discrete storm mode
   will be preferred.  For these reasons, will maintain the SLGT risk
   for LA/MS and expand it somewhat eastward for late-afternoon storms
   spreading across southern AL.  Isolated tornadoes and damaging wind
   gusts appear to be the main threats.  Refer to MCD #0055 for further
   short-term details.

   ..Hart/Moore.. 01/09/2022

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