New Orleans, LA...Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 091610
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Sun Jan 09 2022
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHERN AL....
Damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible today
across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
A persistent MCS continues to track eastward across central MS late
this morning. This cluster of storms is within a baroclinic zone
along the northern edge of returning low-level moisture, with
dewpoints in the upper 60s across southern MS and southwest AL.
Visible satellite imagery shows considerable breaks in the clouds
over this region, helping to mix the boundary-layer and destabilize
the air mass. Moisture will continue to increase across southern AL
through the afternoon, with a corridor of MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg
The storms over central MS appear slightly elevated at this time.
However, continued heating should eventually result in surface-based
convection. Vertical shear profiles are favorable for supercells,
and recent CAM guidance also suggests that semi-discrete storm mode
will be preferred. For these reasons, will maintain the SLGT risk
for LA/MS and expand it somewhat eastward for late-afternoon storms
spreading across southern AL. Isolated tornadoes and damaging wind
gusts appear to be the main threats. Refer to MCD #0055 for further
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z