Jan 9, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 9 19:58:42 UTC 2022 (20220109 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220109 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220109 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 23,192 1,145,267 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Auburn, AL...Phenix City, AL...Prattville, AL...
MARGINAL 85,981 9,147,855 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220109 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 23,123 1,143,775 Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Auburn, AL...Phenix City, AL...Prattville, AL...
2 % 62,255 6,377,161 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220109 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 23,104 1,143,547 Montgomery, AL...Auburn, AL...Phenix City, AL...Prattville, AL...Opelika, AL...
5 % 85,913 9,114,418 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220109 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 41,370 3,282,906 Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Gulfport, MS...Hattiesburg, MS...
   SPC AC 091958

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CST Sun Jan 09 2022

   Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes will remain possible
   this afternoon and early evening, mainly across parts of Mississippi
   and Alabama.

   ...20Z Update...
   The best corridor for severe storms through the rest of the
   afternoon appears to be centered over parts of southwestern into
   south-central AL. Across this area, a favorable combination of
   instability and low/deep-layer shear should overlap and support the
   potential for supercells. A broken line of storms will continue to
   advance eastward across this area over the next several hours, and
   they could produce a couple of tornadoes and occasional damaging
   winds. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 58 for more information on the
   near-term severe threat across AL.

   Less instability and low-level moisture will be present over GA this
   evening, but an isolated wind threat may still persist with eastward
   extent across this region. Low-level winds are gradually veering to
   southwesterly and weakening across the lower MS Valley. Mainly
   isolated hail and gusty winds may occur with storms ongoing across
   southern LA into MS. See Mesoscale Discussion 57 for more details on
   the severe threat across this area.

   ..Gleason.. 01/09/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 09 2022/

   ...LA/MS/AL...
   A persistent MCS continues to track eastward across central MS late
   this morning.  This cluster of storms is within a baroclinic zone
   along the northern edge of returning low-level moisture, with
   dewpoints in the upper 60s across southern MS and southwest AL. 
   Visible satellite imagery shows considerable breaks in the clouds
   over this region, helping to mix the boundary-layer and destabilize
   the air mass.  Moisture will continue to increase across southern AL
   through the afternoon, with a corridor of MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg
   expected.

   The storms over central MS appear slightly elevated at this time. 
   However, continued heating should eventually result in surface-based
   convection.  Vertical shear profiles are favorable for supercells,
   and recent CAM guidance also suggests that semi-discrete storm mode
   will be preferred.  For these reasons, will maintain the SLGT risk
   for LA/MS and expand it somewhat eastward for late-afternoon storms
   spreading across southern AL.  Isolated tornadoes and damaging wind
   gusts appear to be the main threats.  Refer to MCD #0055 for further
   short-term details.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z