Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Auburn, AL...Phenix City, AL...Prattville, AL...
MARGINAL
85,981
9,147,855
New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
23,123
1,143,775
Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Auburn, AL...Phenix City, AL...Prattville, AL...
2 %
62,255
6,377,161
New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
23,104
1,143,547
Montgomery, AL...Auburn, AL...Phenix City, AL...Prattville, AL...Opelika, AL...
5 %
85,913
9,114,418
New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 091958
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sun Jan 09 2022
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes will remain possible
this afternoon and early evening, mainly across parts of Mississippi
and Alabama.
...20Z Update...
The best corridor for severe storms through the rest of the
afternoon appears to be centered over parts of southwestern into
south-central AL. Across this area, a favorable combination of
instability and low/deep-layer shear should overlap and support the
potential for supercells. A broken line of storms will continue to
advance eastward across this area over the next several hours, and
they could produce a couple of tornadoes and occasional damaging
winds. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 58 for more information on the
near-term severe threat across AL.
Less instability and low-level moisture will be present over GA this
evening, but an isolated wind threat may still persist with eastward
extent across this region. Low-level winds are gradually veering to
southwesterly and weakening across the lower MS Valley. Mainly
isolated hail and gusty winds may occur with storms ongoing across
southern LA into MS. See Mesoscale Discussion 57 for more details on
the severe threat across this area.
..Gleason.. 01/09/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Jan 09 2022/
...LA/MS/AL...
A persistent MCS continues to track eastward across central MS late
this morning. This cluster of storms is within a baroclinic zone
along the northern edge of returning low-level moisture, with
dewpoints in the upper 60s across southern MS and southwest AL.
Visible satellite imagery shows considerable breaks in the clouds
over this region, helping to mix the boundary-layer and destabilize
the air mass. Moisture will continue to increase across southern AL
through the afternoon, with a corridor of MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg
expected.
The storms over central MS appear slightly elevated at this time.
However, continued heating should eventually result in surface-based
convection. Vertical shear profiles are favorable for supercells,
and recent CAM guidance also suggests that semi-discrete storm mode
will be preferred. For these reasons, will maintain the SLGT risk
for LA/MS and expand it somewhat eastward for late-afternoon storms
spreading across southern AL. Isolated tornadoes and damaging wind
gusts appear to be the main threats. Refer to MCD #0055 for further
short-term details.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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