Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 100047
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Sun Jan 09 2022
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated damaging wind gusts will be
possible from parts of the central Gulf Coast to south-central
Georgia for a few more hours this evening. A marginal tornado threat
will also be possible.
...Central Gulf Coast to South-central Georgia...
The latest water vapor imagery shows west-southwesterly mid-level
flow across much of the eastern U.S. An upper-level trough is
currently moving eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley,
Arklatex and southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
located from southern Mississippi northeastward into far
northwestern Georgia. Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of
the front along the northern edge of a corridor of instability, with
the RAP showing MLCAPE in 750 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition to the
instability, the WSR-88D VWP in southeastern Alabama has 0-6 km
shear at 35 kt with 0-1 km storm relative helicity near 200 m2/s2.
This could support a lingering severe threat with a potential for
isolated wind damage and a marginal tornado threat for a couple more
hours this evening. However, weakening instability should make the
severe threat increasingly marginal with time. For this reason, have
downgraded to marginal risk.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z