Jan 10, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 10 00:47:22 UTC 2022 (20220110 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220110 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220110 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 42,740 3,110,847 Mobile, AL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Warner Robins, GA...Pensacola, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220110 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 35,455 2,704,924 Mobile, AL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Pensacola, FL...Biloxi, MS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220110 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 42,836 3,119,473 Mobile, AL...Albany, GA...Dothan, AL...Warner Robins, GA...Pensacola, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220110 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 13,646 1,617,204 Mobile, AL...Pensacola, FL...Biloxi, MS...Ferry Pass, FL...Prichard, AL...
   SPC AC 100047

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0647 PM CST Sun Jan 09 2022

   Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with isolated damaging wind gusts will be
   possible from parts of the central Gulf Coast to south-central
   Georgia for a few more hours this evening. A marginal tornado threat
   will also be possible.

   ...Central Gulf Coast to South-central Georgia...
   The latest water vapor imagery shows west-southwesterly mid-level
   flow across much of the eastern U.S. An upper-level trough is
   currently moving eastward across the mid Mississippi Valley,
   Arklatex and southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
   located from southern Mississippi northeastward into far
   northwestern Georgia. Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of
   the front along the northern edge of a corridor of instability, with
   the RAP showing MLCAPE in 750 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition to the
   instability, the WSR-88D VWP in southeastern Alabama has 0-6 km
   shear at 35 kt with 0-1 km storm relative helicity near 200 m2/s2.
   This could support a lingering severe threat with a potential for
   isolated wind damage and a marginal tornado threat for a couple more
   hours this evening. However, weakening instability should make the
   severe threat increasingly marginal with time. For this reason, have
   downgraded to marginal risk.

   ..Broyles.. 01/10/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z