Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 100520
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Sun Jan 09 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across portions of the Florida
Peninsula today, but organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely.
...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will advance eastward from the
Great Lakes region into the western Atlantic, while the tail end of
an attendant cold front progresses southward across the Florida
Peninsula during the day. While the deeper forcing for ascent
related to the large-scale trough will be displaced well to the
north of the frontal circulation, sufficient instability and shallow
forcing along and ahead of the cold front will support scattered
thunderstorm development across parts of the Florida Peninsula.
...Central and Southern Florida Peninsula...
Ahead of the southward-advancing cold front, modest boundary-layer
moisture (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) combined with pockets of
diurnal heating will contribute to a moderately unstable air mass
across the Florida Peninsula during the late morning into early
evening time frame. While deep-layer shear will remain rather
limited (20-30 knots) and low-level flow will quickly veer across
the warm sector, a plume of 6.5-7.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates
coupled with deep subtropical moisture will support a few locally
strong wind gusts with any loosely organized convective clusters
(aided by water-loading processes). With that said, the lack of
stronger deep-layer flow/shear and minimal large-scale ascent should
generally limit the threat of organized severe thunderstorms.
..Weinman/Broyles.. 01/10/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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