Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 101204
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are expected across central and south Florida,
mainly this afternoon/evening.
...FL mainly this afternoon/evening...
In the wake of deep midlevel trough over the Northeast, a surface
cold front will continue to move southeastward across the Gulf of
Mexico and FL peninsula through tonight. Daytime heating across
central/south FL and a diffuse pre-frontal trough will help focus
the development of a few thunderstorms, mainly this
afternoon/evening across southeast FL where there may be some local
sea breeze enhancement. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and weak vertical
shear suggest that severe storms are unlikely.
...Elsewhere through tonight...
A lake-effect snow band will persist through the afternoon off Lake
Ontario. Shallow buoyancy is expected within this band, but the
entire profile will be colder than -5 to -6 C, which suggests that
lightning production will be sparse (if at all). Farther east, any
ocean-effect convection deep enough to produce lightning flashes
should remain well off the southeast New England coast tonight.
..Thompson/Leitman.. 01/10/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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