Jan 10, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 10 16:15:27 UTC 2022 (20220110 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220110 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220110 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220110 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220110 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220110 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 101615

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1015 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022

   Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are expected across central and south Florida,
   mainly this afternoon/evening.

   ...FL...
   Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across central
   and south FL today, where strong heating and dewpoints in the
   mid-upper 60s will promote moderate afternoon MLCAPE.  Mid-level
   temperatures are cool (-14C at 500mb), further aiding in the degree
   of instability.  Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
   expected to develop over the east-central and southeastern
   peninsula, perhaps aided by sea-breeze interactions.  Vertical shear
   is weak, limiting much severe threat.  Nevertheless, the strongest
   updrafts may produce small hail and/or gusty winds.  Considered a
   small MRGL east of the lake between MLB and MIA, but the very small
   area and weak vertical shear limit confidence in the severe risk.

   ..Hart.. 01/10/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z